Overview of the production status and future deman

Overview of production status and future demand outlook of the global methanol industry

overview of production status and future demand outlook of the global methanol industry

June 12, 2007

[China coating information] 1 Current situation of methanol production

according to the latest report of American Chemistry weekly, the total production capacity of methanol in the world was close to 48million tons by the end of 2006, and the total demand in 2006 was 36.8 million tons. The world's methanol production is mainly concentrated in regions rich in natural gas resources, such as Trinidad, Chile, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia and Russia. China has become the world's main methanol production region, and China's methanol is mainly made from coal. Among them, the production capacity of the Asia Pacific region is 14.1 million T/year, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity; the production capacity of the Middle East and Africa region is 12.17 million T/year, accounting for about 25% of the total production capacity; the production capacity of North America region is only 600000 T/year, accounting for about 1.2% of the total production capacity; the production capacity of South America region is 12.56 million T/year, accounting for about 26% of the total production capacity; the production capacity of other regions in the world is 8.54 million T/year, It accounts for about 17.8% of the world's total production capacity. The world's major methanol production enterprises sell methanol as a commodity, with little self consumption. At the same time, large methanol production enterprises have their own ocean shipping fleets and storage and transportation facilities, so as to transport the produced methanol to all parts of the world for sale

2. Demand outlook

Guillermo Saade, an analyst at Sri consulting company headquartered in Houston, USA, predicts that due to the growth of downstream demand, the world's methanol demand will grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.6% in the next five years, including methyl methacrylate (MMA) demand growth of 4.7% per year, acetic acid demand growth of 6.4% per year, plus new uses such as direct fuel (excluding methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE)). In addition, the demand for formaldehyde, the most useful methanol, will grow at a growth rate of 3.2% per year

the regions with rapid capacity growth are the Middle East and South America, which have become important production bases of methanol in the world. Due to the high price of natural gas in the United States and the restrictions on the use of MTBE products, methanol production in the United States has fallen sharply, leaving only 600000 T/a at present. In the next few years, a large number of capacity will be put into operation. It is expected that the methanol capacity in the Middle East will double by 2010, and China's capacity will also double to 21.2 million T/a by 2010. Methanol to olefins (mto/mtp) and dimethyl ether (DME) will be the main driving forces driving the growth of methanol market demand in the future, and China will be the key area of methanol demand

it is estimated that the world's methanol production capacity will reach about 64 million tons by 2010 and about 72 million tons by 2015. The supply capacity is greater than the market demand, and the competition will intensify. Some small uncompetitive units or methanol units in areas with high raw material prices will be shut down. According to the future trend of methanol plant construction, the world's methanol production center is transferring to South America, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China, where the thermoplastic has a good high temperature performance combination (RTI = 140 ° C); At the same time, the target markets of methanol products in these countries and regions are mainly for the Asia Pacific region and China

although a large number of production capacity in North America has been shut down, globally, the growth rate of world methanol production capacity will reach 8.4% per year from 2006 to 2011, which will be higher than the growth rate of demand. At the beginning of this year, due to the unplanned shutdown of a series of methanol plants around the world, the market supply was tight, resulting in a sharp rise in the spot price, which was as high as $1.45/gallon FOB in early February. In recent weeks, the price of methanol has returned to 70 cents/gallon FOB. Due to the lower spot price, methanex also lowered the contract price of 54 cents/gallon in April and maintained it at $1.01/gallon FOB in May. Southern Chemical also lowered the contract price by 45.5 cents/gallon in April and 3 cents/gallon to $1/gallon in May. European prices also fell to a record high of 170 euros/ton in the first quarter. The contract price in the Asia Pacific region fell 53% to 320 dollars/ton compared with April, and the spot price in China was 230 dollars/ton C F. Since the spot price of methanol in Europe reached a peak of 415 euros/ton on January 5, the spot price has fallen continuously for three months

coal is the main raw material for methanol production in China. China a cultivates its practical ability, imagination and creativity. Alcohol production is mainly concentrated in South China, East China and North China, accounting for 27.11%, 23.79% and 16.63% respectively. In 2005, the domestic refined methanol output was 5.362 million tons, an increase of 21.62% over the same period last year; In 2006, the domestic refined methanol output has made a breakthrough leap, with a cumulative output of 7.6225 million tons in 2006

at present, there are about 200 methanol production enterprises in China, but the overall methanol production pattern shows the characteristics of small-scale and decentralized distribution. There are only Sichuan Vinylon plant of Sinopec Group, methanol plant of Daqing Oilfield, Shanghai Coking Company, Yulin natural gas chemical company, Qinghai Branch of China National Gas Company of Changqing Oilfield and other companies with a capacity of about 100000 tons. In 2006, China's methanol production capacity was 11.17 million tons, its methanol import volume was 1.128 million tons, and its export volume was 190000 tons, making it the second largest methanol consumer in the world

due to the relatively concentrated start-up of new units in 2006, China's methanol production capacity was 11.17 million tons in 2006, with a year-on-year increase of 21.16%, but most of the new units only completed batch production at the end of 2005,

China's methanol consumption structure is similar to that of foreign countries, and the largest consumption field is formaldehyde production, with a consumption ratio of about 40%; Followed by MTBE and acetic acid, accounting for 6% and 7% respectively in the extrusion process. In recent years, the consumption of methanol fuel has developed rapidly. Although the country has not issued relevant policies, regulations and standards, methanol fuel consumption has become one of the main driving forces driving methanol demand

at present, the main regions of methanol consumption in China are East China and South China, which are also the concentration of downstream products such as formaldehyde, MTBE, acrylate and acetic acid. For methanol fuel, the consumption areas are mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Henan and other places. In 2005, among China's total methanol imports, Jiangsu province accounted for 62.28%, Guangdong Province for 28.28%, Fujian Province for 4.11%, and Zhejiang Province for 3.34%. All imports are basically concentrated in East and South China, and the import structure also reflects the regional distribution of methanol consumption in China to a certain extent